Pakistan (Brussels Morning Newspaper), Chinese President Xi Jinping’s whirlwind tour of three European nations—France, Serbia, and Hungary—signals a strategic maneuver in China’s geopolitical calculus. Against the backdrop of upcoming European elections in June, Xi’s choice of timing and destinations denotes Beijing’s proactive stance on the global stage.
Apparently, his primary objective is to defuse trade tensions and counter European scrutiny of China’s trade practices, spanning sectors from electric vehicles to medical devices. Yet, beyond economic interests, Xi aims to solidify Chinese influence in Central and Eastern Europe, a region increasingly estranged from Moscow following Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
From Beijing’s perspective, this visit serves a triple purpose: repairing strained European relations due to China’s stance on the Ukraine conflict, blunting the EU’s economic security agenda vis-à-vis China, and reinforcing ties with close friends like Serbia and Hungary. Xi’s visit to Europe, after a gap of five years, underlines the evolving dynamics of global power competition and the resurgence of geopolitics. This presents an opportunity for both China and Europe to explore avenues of cooperation amidst mounting strategic tensions.
During his meeting with President Macron, Xi Jinping is likely to downplay China’s support for Putin’s actions in Ukraine, seeking to reassure European partners of Beijing’s commitment to stability. Emphasizing the economic benefits of engagement with China, Xi will surely advocate for an independent European approach, divergent from Washington’s influence.
This resonates well with Macron’s sentiments who is papably cautious of aligning too closely with the United States. Beijing has so far strategically capitalized on diverging European opinions on countering China’s subsidies, particularly in industries like electric vehicles (EVs). Some European critics assert that being aware of internal disagreements, Xi will try to challenge the validity and justification of the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EV imports.
They view Xi’s current tour as a calculated diplomatic maneuver and indirect attempt to encash the existing geopolitical fault lines to advance its interests. There is no doubt that Xi’s visit reflects Beijing’s commitment to establishing close economic – as well as political – relations with Europe, which is natural for the world’s second-largest economy.
But it is being increasingly projected by the skeptics as some kind of indirect attempt to assert its influence to support Moscow. Nevertheless, an impartial assessment would reveal that Xi’s visit represents a constructive step forward in fostering positive relations between the European continent and China from a broader perspective.
French President Macron’s strategic move to convene a trilateral meeting with Xi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Paris underscores his efforts to project a unified European stance. Macron’s recent warning about the disintegration of the European project without bolstered political and security dimensions sets the backdrop for this diplomatic engagement. In his interactions at the bilateral level, Macron has repeatedly emphasized his commitment to addressing “global issues” and ensuring China’s compliance with international norms.
Macron’s approach to China is emblematic of a broader European desire to forge independent relations, free from Washington’s influence. Following his visit to China last year, Macron’s remarks sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic. His assertion that Europe should not blindly follow the United States’ lead and avoid unnecessary entanglements resonated with those advocating for a more autonomous foreign policy stance.
However, some observers have criticized Macron for potentially undermining the trans-Atlantic alliance’s unified stance against China, particularly regarding sensitive issues like Taiwan. Despite reaffirming France’s support for the status quo in Taiwan, Macron’s remarks reflected the delicate balance European leaders seek to strike in navigating their relationships with both China and the United States in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
The remaining two countries on Xi’s itinerary, Serbia and Hungary, are widely regarded as close friends of Beijing. During his visit, Xi is anticipated to strengthen bilateral relations with these countries. In the past decade and a half, Serbia has cultivated a robust strategic partnership with China, marked by extensive economic and political collaboration.
China’s status as Serbia’s leading source of foreign direct investment and its second-largest trading partner, following the EU, shows the depth of their ties. Xi Jinping’s forthcoming visit to Serbia presents an opportunity for both nations to showcase the fruits of their cooperation.
Meanwhile, in Hungary, Xi is slated to meet with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose foreign policy has increasingly aligned with China and Russia. Budapest’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since 2015 and its advocacy for China’s interests within the European Union highlight Orbán’s pro-Beijing stance. During his discussions with Orbán, Xi is expected to review ongoing BRI infrastructure projects and broker agreements for new initiatives.
Of particular interest is the acceleration of the Belgrade-Budapest high-speed railway project, which aims to bolster connectivity between the two countries. Additionally, discussions may extend to Greece’s recent decision to join the project, potentially creating an alternative route for Chinese exports to penetrate deeper into Europe from the south.
Xi Jinping’s European tour is a strategic move aimed at countering Europe’s increasingly stringent stance on reducing risks associated with China. Within Central and Eastern Europe, Beijing has found receptive allies eager to challenge Washington’s geopolitical strategy and forge closer ties with China. Serbia and Hungary stand out as pivotal players in this complex geopolitical puzzle.
Despite Washington’s pressure to disengage from China, many European nations remain committed to deepening their economic cooperation with the world’s second-largest economy. Despite global disruptions, China continues to be the EU’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $783 billion in 2023 alone—an astonishing average of nearly $1.5 million in trade exchanges per minute.
This robust economic interdependence underscores the potential for mutually beneficial cooperation between China and the EU. Rather than resorting to antagonism and rivalry, both sides stand to gain more from collaboration and healthy competition. As Xi’s visit unfolds, it underscores the significance of China-EU economic ties and the potential for further advancements through constructive engagement.
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