Brussels (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – Germany’s upcoming election are on the 23rd of February 2025. Polls show the CDU/CSU leading, with the far-right AfD surging – potentially pushing Germany and the EU sharply to the right.
Who for the lead?
Olaf Scholz’s administration collapsed on the 16th of December 2024, after his coalition lost a confidence vote in the Bundestag. Germany will therefore hold its next federal election on the 23rd of February 2025, where all 630 seats in the Bundestag are up for grabs, and the country’s political course for the coming years will be decided.
Currently leading the polls with 31% of the vote, the center-right CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) has a ten-point advantage on its closest competitor the AfD (Alternative for Germany). Indeed, the two leading parties in the German polls right now are right leaning formations, and the AfD has had a particularly striking surge in popularity polling between 20% and 22% of vote intentions. Meanwhile, Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) continues to decline, now polling in third position with just 17% – accompanied with the once ascendant political force, the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) who have recently lost the Germans people favor and are currently standing at 14%.
It therefore seems that the most likely coalition to govern Germany is going to be leaning right in a very potent manner, greatly shifting the country’s stance on subject such as immigration and the integration of climate action within the German economy.
Surge of the far right in Germany, who didn’t see it coming?
The CDU/CSU has staged a significant comeback from its 24.1% result in the 2021 election, but its gains are overshadowed by the meteoric rise of the once infamous but now seemingly rehabilitated AfD, which is on course to break records in the upcoming elections this month. The shift of sentiment is far from uniform across Germany though – AfD is indeed projected to lead in five of the country’s sixteen federal states, particularly in the east.
The country’s rightward shift is far from an isolated case – It fits into a broader European and global trend where far-right and right-wing parties continue to gain ground by capitalizing on public anger over economic struggles, migration, and security.
In the German and even European public discourse for instance, the 2015 refugee crisis was perceived by a part of the European population as a failure of Western government to protect its own citizen and while some studies have tried to showcase the benefits of this migration wave the current economic and security struggles felts throughout the continent obviously resonate more with the electorate than a few peer reviewed studies. Factors aggravating this rhetoric are for instance the fact that men greatly outnumbered women among the 890,000 refugees that landed in Germany that year – men receiving less empathy in the public discourse than women and children. A perceived issue that seems to still apply to current EU immigration practices which are denounced by voters of right wing and far right parties.
Their stance has been further cemented by growing security concerns as the German people have been faced with a few particularly marking tragedies in the past months – the Christmas market attack in December 2024 and the Aschaffenburg knife attack of January of this year which resulted in the death of a 2-year-old child are two recent examples. Those highly mediatized tragedies have undoubtedly helped right wing and far right parties who historically represent a stronger approach towards national security. This is further helped by the broader national security picture where for instance in 2023, Germany recorded 214,000 violent crimes, marking an 8.6% rise from the previous year and the highest level in 15 years.
If Germany flips, so does Europe?
With 83 million people, Germany isn’t just the EU’s most populous country – it’s also one of its most influential members. Its influence extends well beyond even its 96 seats in the European Parliament, the largest national delegation, ensuring that its political stance weighs heavily on EU policymaking. Indeed, under the EU’s qualified majority voting system, Germany holds the most sway in the Council of the European Union, where major decisions require 55% of member states representing at least 65% of the bloc’s population. Simply put, the direction Germany takes politically doesn’t just shape its own future – it actively tilts the balance of power in the European Union itself.
Hence, a rightward shift in Germany’s next election would severely reshape the balance of power within the EU and would require strong counter influence to limits its impact. Now, what is extremely important to note is that France – widely considered Germany’s biggest political competitor within the EU – is also expected to move in the same direction in 2027 when its national elections take place. If both nations end up under right-wing or nationalist leadership, it would mark a fundamental and unprecedented shift in the 21st century EU political landscape, with its two most influential countries steering the EU in a new direction.
This would effectively leave Spain – and to a lesser extent, Poland – as the most influential left-leaning governments within the EU, a surprising turn of event for the historically left leaning supranational institution. Germany’s upcoming election could therefore serve as the catalyst for a broader political realignment across Europe, ringing the bell of a new political era for the old continent.
Dear reader,
Opinions expressed in the op-ed section are solely those of the individual author and do not represent the official stance of our newspaper. We believe in providing a platform for a wide range of voices and perspectives, even those that may challenge or differ from our own. We remain committed to providing our readers with high-quality, fair, and balanced journalism. Thank you for your continued support.
