The cost of rebuilding out of rubbles

Suleman Yousaf
Credit: Ahmed akacha from Pexels

There are two different worlds, one living in the future, while the other is thrown back, decades if not centuries. One has set the stage for debates around AI, supercomputation, and humans entering the most productive times of their history, while the other is surrounded by debates around ceasefire agreements and liberation. The gulf between these worlds seems vast, but history has shown that it can be bridged. The question remains: how much effort, resources, and hope will be required to bridge this divide? And who will shoulder the responsibility?

For context, the recent escalation in Palestine has engulfed lives, amounting to thousands—approximately 38,000 Palestinians as per conservative estimates. Meanwhile, 1.7 million survivors huddle in tents in the city of Gaza and the West Bank, surrounded by nothing but rubbles and war refugee camps. Millions are without shelter, facing food shortages. UN reports have sounded the alarm: Gaza’s development has regressed to an unprecedented level, unseen since 1955. Syria, on the other hand, has been ravaged by a 13-year war, resulting in more than 500,000 dead and 70% of its infrastructure in ruins. Reconstruction remains paralyzed by geopolitics.

At the cost of making sense out of the rubble, the cruelty of such a massive scale is not unprecedented in modern history. From the devastation of World War II to the Rwanda conflict and the Bosnian war, the crime of massive scale and destruction of human civility and infrastructure has happened before. Yet, the international community has managed to uplift disintegrated regions and rebuild war-trodden lives. For instance, the Marshall Plan saw the US dedicate 4% of its GDP to Europe’s recovery. Similarly, Rwanda’s reconstruction and Bosnia’s recovery were shouldered by international efforts, with respective financial and logistical support of 4 billion and 15 billion dollars.

Below is a comparison of such disastrous events that have occurred in less than a century:

Figure 1. Comparison of foreign aid and projected GDP growth in various regions, illustrating the scale of required investment for rebuilding. Data compiled by the author.

For instance, the Marshall Plan’s substantial investment in post-WWII Europe led to a remarkable 67% GDP growth. Similarly, Rwanda and Bosnia saw modest but notable growth following substantial international support. This historical data suggests that with adequate funding and political will, regions like Gaza and Syria could also experience significant recovery and growth.

In the case of Palestine and Syria, the initial capital required to begin rebuilding, along with achieving political stability and lasting peace, amounts to 40 and 50 billion dollars respectively. The graph illustrates the scale of the challenge and the magnitude of the aid required. While the peace in Palestine remains haunted by a ceasefire that is yet to be realized, the data underscores the urgency of the situation. As seen in Rwanda after the genocide, social cohesion must be prioritized in Palestine, requiring a redressal of the generational trauma caused by Israeli occupation. Here, the task of a third party, a moderator, becomes crucial.

No wonder there are hard pills to swallow, such as the financial implications associated with the reconstruction of lives, homes, and the hope for normalcy. History shows that recovery is possible, but only with sustained political will. The alternative is a world where entire regions remain suspended in time, their people denied the future others take for granted.

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Sulman Yousaf is a Journalism Intern at Brussels Morning Newspaper, where he covers Ghent local news, world news, and Middle East affairs. An international student at Ghent University, Sulman is currently completing a preparatory year for his Master’s in Conflict and Development. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in International Relations.
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