As I survey the increasingly more dystopian international scene, the role of shame and reputational costs in political and geopolitical decision-making is becoming more evident by the day.
Start with Hezbollah and Iran.
Hezbollah is unlikely to cease its attacks on Israel even in the wake of a ceasefire in Gaza. The assassination of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s chief of staff in Beirut has crossed a red line, precisely because it exposed the incompetence and porousness of the boastful militia.
Israel’s growing panic, faced with Iran’s retribution for the humiliating killing of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, is an added incentive to up the military stakes. It is evident that Israel is defenseless in the face of Hezbollah’s UAVs and precision missiles, let alone Iran’s arsenal.
The Arab world, Iran, as well as China and Russia are shame-based societies: dignity matters more than life itself. Deterrence consists of this very ostentatious suicidal preference.
The West regards such calculus irrational but would do well to take it into account: it is the mindset typical of bullies, thugs, criminals, and terrorists.
Consider Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region. It is bound to be repelled. But the public mortification incurred by Russia will push it to escalate the war in extremely dangerous ways, including, possibly, to target other countries in Europe and use tactical nuclear weapons.
Same thinking applies to Iran: Haniyeh was an honored guest when the Israelis got him amid the inauguration of a new President there. Iran must restore its “name” and “face” in the region and among its proxies, regardless of the cost to itself.
Trump and his base are also a reputation-based movement. Fear and contempt are the instruments of power, not love or solidarity.
The recent decision by the Supreme Court of the USA regarding the immunity of the President (Trump, actually) when it comes to official acts is reminiscent of the doctrine of papal infallibility regarding pronouncements ex cathedra.
But its main benefit to Trump is to forestall reputational costs: not standing trial (or being pardoned, like Nixon) is a great way to avoid the disgrace inflicted on politicians when they stray from the straight and narrow (the Nuremberg trials and the ICC come to mind).
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