Donald Trump has always prided himself on his deal-making prowess. But his latest attempt to broker peace in Ukraine, via a phone call with Vladimir Putin, only highlights how adept the Russian president is at playing the long game – and playing Trump. The call, which was meant to be a step toward de-escalation, became yet another showcase of Putin’s ability to string Trump along while solidifying his own strategic position.
The spectacle began even before the conversation started, with Putin making Trump wait for over an hour – a power move meant to project dominance, both to Trump and the Russian audience. Such tactics aren’t new; Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, was reportedly made to wait for eight hours before his meeting with Putin in Moscow. These delays aren’t logistical hiccups; they are deliberate assertions of Putin’s alpha status.
But beyond the optics, the substance of the conversation further underscores Putin’s ability to dictate terms while making Trump appear as if he is negotiating from a position of strength. The supposed breakthrough of the call – a 30-day pause in Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure – was not a ceasefire, as Trump had hoped. Instead, it was a carefully crafted concession that allows Russia to continue its offensive on the ground while momentarily reducing the pressure on its own war machine.
The Kremlin’s readout of the call makes clear, conrrary to Trump’s broader ceasefire proposal, Putin agreed on a pause pertaining to the energy infrastructure only. This is hardly a major concession on Russia’s part. In reality, it costs Putin little, as Ukraine’s ability to damage Russian oil infrastructure has been far more significant than Moscow’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector. What’s more, the pause provides Russia a window to regroup and reinforce its offensive operations elsewhere while appearing to be negotiating in good faith.
Crucially, the language of the agreement is vague. While the White House statement ambiguously mentioned a halt to attacks on “energy and infrastructure,” the Kremlin’s version clearly narrowed the commitment to just energy-related targets. Predictably, Moscow will interpret the agreement in the way that suits it best, ensuring that other key infrastructure in Ukraine remains vulnerable to attack.
Putin has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to outmaneuver Western leaders, and this latest engagement with Trump is no exception. The Russian president extracted a major win: the implicit acknowledgment that Ukraine’s fate is a matter for US-Russian negotiation, sidelining Kyiv in the process. This alone is a remarkable shift in the diplomatic landscape, weakening Ukraine’s standing while reinforcing Russia’s position.
Trump, eager to claim progress, has already preemptively conceded major bargaining chips. His willingness to freeze military aid to Ukraine, push for direct US-Russia talks without Ukraine’s presence, and hint at recognizing Russian territorial annexations – all signal to Moscow that Trump is willing to bend to its demands.
For Putin, this only strengthens his leverage. If Trump continues down this path, he may end up inadvertently facilitating Russia’s long-term goal: forcing Ukraine into submission while ensuring that Western support for Kyiv fractures. Putin’s ultimate play is to stretch out the negotiation process for as long as possible.
By engaging in ceasefire talks without ever truly committing to peace, he ensures that Russia retains its battlefield advantages while the West gradually loses the political will to support Ukraine. If Trump secures a limited ceasefire deal, Russia will use it as an opportunity to consolidate its control over occupied territories while keeping the prospect of escalation alive to extract further concessions.
For all of Trump’s tough rhetoric in the past, his approach to Russia is remarkably pliable. His transactional style, which thrives on the illusion of quick wins, makes him susceptible to manipulation by a leader like Putin, who understands the art of strategic patience.
The Russian president has no reason to fully end hostilities when the status quo is working to his advantage – both militarily and diplomatically. Ukraine, caught in the middle of this geopolitical maneuvering, has little choice but to play along. Zelensky’s cautious acceptance of the energy infrastructure pause reflects the difficult reality his country faces: antagonizing Trump risks losing crucial US support, but fully trusting in this process could lead to disastrous long-term consequences.
Kyiv’s bottom line remains unchanged: Ukraine’s territorial integrity is non-negotiable, it must retain the right to forge its own alliances, and any lasting peace must be built on adherence to international law. Yet, with Trump’s willingness to make unilateral moves, Ukraine finds itself in an increasingly precarious position.
At its core, Putin’s strategy remains the same as it has been since the war began: to reassert Russian dominance over Ukraine and push back against Western influence in the region. He has no intention of relinquishing control over occupied territories, and his long-term goal is to force Ukraine into a settlement that cements Russian influence over its policies and future direction.
Trump’s handling of this latest interaction with Putin raises uncomfortable questions about his approach to Russia. His eagerness to engage with Moscow without securing concrete commitments, his willingness to forgo hard leverage, and his inclination to tout minor concessions as major victories all work in Putin’s favor.
If this dynamic continues, Russia may succeed in reshaping the conflict on its own terms – at the cost of Ukrainian sovereignty and Western credibility. Ultimately, Trump’s phone call with Putin was less about securing peace and more about the Russian leader flexing his dominance. In this high-stakes game of diplomacy, Putin remains firmly in control, while Trump continues to mistake stagecraft for strategy.
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