Iran’s Regime Grapples with Rising Resistance Amidst Mounting Fear of Uprising

Hamid Enayat
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Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper) Less than a month ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared at Khomeini’s tomb: “Today, we have thousands of nuclei of resistance in the mosques and assemblies of our country. We see young people rising up to defend security.”
Yet, the Iranian regime has deployed at least four intelligence agencies, the Revolutionary Guards, the Bassij militia, and the army to suppress the uprising. What is Khamenei afraid of, then, in wanting to form nuclei of resistance?

In the span of nine months, since the popular uprising began in autumn, shaking the foundations of power in Tehran, the demonstrations may have subsided, but Khamenei and his regime are well aware that this calm is merely the calm before the storm. The authorities have come to realize that each time they crush an uprising with force, the subsequent one emerges with greater dynamism and power, further weakening the regime. This fear of the next uprising is evident in the ongoing chemical attacks targeting girls’ schools, aiming to terrorize the population and prevent them from revolting. The authorities understand that they can no longer definitively quell the uprising, as fear has shifted sides. The regime has officially announced the release of 22,000 arrested demonstrators out of an estimated 30,000, according to the Iranian resistance. The remaining detainees, still imprisoned and subjected to torture, belong to resistance units affiliated with the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI), the democratic opposition. Additionally, 3,567 PMOI supporters disappeared during the protest movement, leaving no trace.

Despite these disappearances and arrests, the uprising and resistance persist. Resistance units are experiencing exponential growth at a rate of 500%, while power is undermined by a wave of erosion and desertion.

Regime Stuck at an Impasse

Repression is no longer effective, leaving the regime at an impasse. Any attempts at reform require some degree of freedom to pacify discontent, but even this minimum freedom would prove fatal. Consequently, the regime has turned to Western countries such as France and the United States in an attempt to rein in the PMOI.

“Less than six months ago,” stated the official Fars agency on June 26, “amidst a combined war, the People’s Mujahedin boasted of conquering Iran, but today their dream of conquering Tehran has been reduced to nothing. Their death camp in Tirana has fallen, and they have been destroyed.”

The mullahs’ appeal to France and the United States stems from their apprehension toward the revolutionary forces gaining momentum. Moreover, the forefront of this movement comprises women brimming with anger and hatred towards the misogynistic regime.

Why do Khamenei and the Iranian president harbor such fear of a PMOI demonstration occurring 5,000 kilometers away from Iran that they strive to prevent it? Reports from Tehran circles suggest that Ebrahim Raissi’s 90-minute conversation with President Macron predominantly focused on the PMOI and ways to restrict their fundamental rights, such as freedom of expression.

The Iranian regime’s top TV channel perfectly encapsulates the theocracy’s state of mind: “This painful scene, which tears at the heart of every friend of the Islamic Republic of Iran, took place yesterday, July 1st. Mike Pence, Pompeo, John Bolton, Elizabeth Truss, the British Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, French Foreign Minister Kouchner, the Canadian Prime Minister, and dozens of prime ministers, ministers, and high-ranking generals visited Maryam Rajavi’s headquarters. While asserting that Rajavi and the PMOI are the only organized and powerful force to overthrow this innocent regime, they support the destructive operations of PMOI elements inside the country, which are multiplying dangerously.

“At the same time, tens of thousands of Iranians, deceived by the PMOI’s wiles and seductive words, demonstrated in central Paris, raising slogans against the Supreme Leader and even the deposed Shah. While the national media and the authorities had announced that Macron had promised the President to prevent this demonstration.

“Unfortunately, we have witnessed how the PMOI has once again insidiously used the Paris court against the government of this country, and once again obtained authorization to organize their anti-Iranian demonstration. In less than 24 hours, it sent to Paris a flood of tens of thousands of malevolent elements from all over Europe.

“Meanwhile, all we have left with is the diplomacy of Ibrahim [Raissi], who released incarcerated French and European spies in exchange for banning PMOI demonstrations, and all we got were doubts and even more frustration, which are eating away like gangrene at the revolutionaries and militiamen of the Bassidj these days.”

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Hamid Enayat is an expert on Iran and a writer based in Paris. He is also a human rights activist and has been a frequent writer on Iranian and regional issues for thirty years. He has been writing passionately on secularism and fundamental freedoms, and his analysis sheds light on various geopolitics and complex issues concerning the Middle East and Iran.
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