The escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbors, have thrust the whole world into a precarious position.
The Trigger: Phalgam Attack
The immediate catalyst for the current crisis was a devastating terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, a scenic tourist valley in Indian-administered Kashmir. According to The New York Times, five armed militants attacked a group of tourists in Baisaran Valley, killing 26 people, mostly Hindu tourists, and injuring over 20 others.
The Resistance Front (TRF), initially claimed responsibility, citing opposition to Indian policies allowing non-local settlement in Kashmir, but later retracted the claim. Indian authorities swiftly pointed to Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism, prompting a series of retaliatory measures, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the closure of the Attari border crossing.
A Foreshadowed Crisis
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty was eerily foreshadowed by Dr. Raja Qaisar Ahmed, an associate professor at Quaid-e-Azam University. In an X post on November 6, 2019, Dr. Ahmed predicted that following the abrogation of Article 370, India might leverage a domestic security crisis to revoke the treaty, with significant implications for Pakistan.
“The ideological momentum of Hindutva driving current policies shows no sign of ending anytime soon,”
He wrote, urging Pakistan to prepare for such a development within five years.
This prediction, resurfaced in an X post on April 24, 2025, has proven chillingly accurate, as India suspended the treaty on April 23, 2025, citing Pakistan’s alleged breach of its terms through support for terrorism.
Dr. Ahmed’s foresight highlights the strategic calculations underlying India’s response. The treaty, signed in 1960, allocates 70% of the Indus River system’s water to Pakistan, critical for its agriculture. Its suspension, coupled with India’s limited but growing capacity to divert water, threatens Pakistan’s economic stability, escalating the diplomatic fallout.
Tit-for-Tat Escalation
India’s response to the Pahalgam attack has been swift and aggressive. Beyond suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and closing the Attari border, India has downgraded diplomatic ties, revoked visas for Pakistani nationals, and restricted trade.
More alarmingly, The New York Times reports that India is actively building a case for military action against Pakistan, engaging with over a dozen world leaders and briefing diplomats from 100 missions in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised “severe punishment” and the destruction of terror safe havens, while Indian forces have clashed with Pakistani troops along the Line of Control for several nights.
Pakistan, in turn, has retaliated by closing its airspace to Indian carriers, reducing India’s diplomatic presence in Islamabad, and suspending trade. Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, has called for an international investigation into the attack, denying involvement and expressing willingness to cooperate with neutral investigators. However, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has reiterated Kashmir’s importance to Pakistan, signaling no retreat from its stance.
The lack of strong evidence linking Pakistan directly to the attack, as noted by analysts in The New York Times, raises questions about India’s intentions. Some suggest India may be using the attack to justify pre-planned actions, leveraging its growing diplomatic and economic clout to act with minimal global restraint. The volatile situation, marked by intermittent border clashes and India’s sweeping clampdown in Kashmir, underscores the risk of rapid escalation.
A Global Concern
The tension between India and Pakistan transcends regional boundaries, posing a grave threat to global security. Research published in Science Advances warns that escalation between nuclear states could push things to the point of no return as nuclear conflict involving 100–150 warheads from each side could result in 50–125 million fatalities and release 16–36 teragrams of black carbon into the atmosphere. This would reduce global sunlight by 20–35%, cool the planet by 2–5°C, and cut precipitation by 15–30%, leading to mass starvation and economic collapse. Such catastrophic consequences would affect food supplies and trade worldwide, as noted by the National Security Archive.
Moreover, South Asia’s strategic importance—its proximity to global trade routes and energy corridors—means that instability could disrupt international markets and security dynamics. The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation highlights the unique danger posed by the India-Pakistan rivalry, given their history of conventional conflicts and the unresolved Kashmir dispute. The global community, therefore, has a vested interest in preventing escalation.
The Role of the US and EU
As the India-Pakistan crisis unfolds, the international community has taken note of the escalating tensions, particularly given the nuclear capabilities of both nations and the potential for global repercussions. The United States, a key player in global diplomacy, has responded to the situation with a call for restraint and resolution. According to a statement from the US State Department, the United States is closely monitoring the situation and has been in touch with both India and Pakistan at multiple levels. The US has urged all parties to work towards a responsible solution and has strongly condemned the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, expressing solidarity with India.
In contrast, the European Union’s position on the current crisis remains less clear. Despite its historical advocacy for peace and stability in South Asia, no specific public statement from the EU regarding the recent attack or the subsequent escalation has been issued as of April 29, 2025. The EU, as a significant actor in global affairs, is likely monitoring the situation closely and may be engaged in diplomatic efforts behind the scenes to prevent further escalation. However, without a public stance, its role in the current crisis is not explicitly defined.
This divergence in public responses highlights the differing priorities and relationships of the US and EU with the region. The US, with its strategic partnership with India and its historical ties to Pakistan, has taken a more active role in addressing the crisis. The EU, while committed to global peace, has not yet articulated a clear position on this specific incident, possibly reflecting a more cautious approach or a focus on broader diplomatic channels.
Diplomacy, restraint, and international cooperation!
The India-Pakistan crisis, triggered by the Pahalgam attack and fueled by nuclear rivalry and strategic maneuvering, is a global emergency. The world cannot afford to ignore the warning signs, as the consequences of inaction could be devastating. Diplomacy, restraint, and international cooperation are essential to pull these nations back from the brink. The involvement of global powers like the US and potentially the EU will be critical in navigating this delicate situation and preventing a conflict with far-reaching consequences.
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