Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – Upcoming EU elections are forecasted to significantly impact the EU’s policy agenda, with anti-European populist parties poised to make substantial gains. ECFR polling data predicts a possible majority for the populist right, challenging the current centrist coalition’s dominance. Key areas likely to be affected include environmental policies, support for Ukraine, and the enforcement of the rule of law. The findings suggest that pro-European parties might struggle due to a focus on migration and an overemphasis on EU successes. However, divisions within the far-right could limit their ability to set the EU agenda.
The upcoming EU elections could bring about major shifts in the European Union’s policy direction, as indicated by new polling from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Conducted by polling experts Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham, the study predicts a significant rise in support for anti-European populist parties. This shift could disrupt the current balance of power within the European Parliament, potentially hindering the effectiveness of centrist coalitions in passing key legislation. As the elections approach, the implications for environmental policies, support for Ukraine, and the enforcement of the rule of law become increasingly significant.
What are the projected outcomes of the upcoming EU elections?
The ECFR’s extensive polling and advanced statistical modeling predict that anti-European populist parties will top the polls in nine EU member states and secure second or third place in another nine countries. This surge in support could result in a coalition of the populist right gaining a majority for the first time, significantly altering the composition of the European Parliament.
How might these election results affect the EU’s policy agenda?
The potential rise of the populist right poses a threat to the EU’s current policy trajectory. The authors suggest that key areas like the European Green Deal, support for Ukraine, and the enforcement of the rule of law could face significant challenges. With a shift to the right, an anti-climate policy coalition could dominate, reversing progress on environmental issues.
What strategies should pro-European parties adopt in their campaigns?
The polling data indicates that migration is not the leading concern for most voters, with only 15% citing it as the top crisis of the past decade. Pro-European parties should be cautious about focusing their campaigns on migration or the EU’s past successes in handling crises like Covid-19, climate change, and the war in Ukraine. Instead, they should address the broader concerns of economic turmoil and war more effectively.
What are the divisions within the far-right, and how might they influence the EU agenda?
Despite their anticipated gains, the far-right remains divided on several key issues, including support for Ukraine, the salience of migration, and EU membership. These divisions could prevent a unified far-right agenda from dominating the EU’s policymaking process beyond June 2024. Understanding these internal rifts could be crucial for centrist and pro-European parties in strategizing their responses and maintaining influence within the Parliament.
