Russia is Europe’s rival

Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper), Despite the Wagner mercenary group’s mutiny against President Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader has has publicly reaffirmed his commitment to Russian war efforts in Ukraine.

He reportedly said that his day begins and ends with “attention” to the issue. 

Yet many agree that the uprising has exposed the weaknesses of Putin’s rule, and Ukrainian officials describe the rebellion as the “first stage of dismantling” of Putin’s regime.

 EU-27 met last week to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine and continued EU financial and military support to Ukraine. 

Other important issues on the agenda concerned NATO-EU cooperation, the economic situation in the EU, including how to strengthen economic security and resilience; bolstering EU security and defence capacities; and migration. 

The meeting also hosted a strategic discussion on China. 

A new survey of 11 EU member states (including Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden), explores citizen attitudes towards European defence, as well as relations with Russia, China and the US. 

ECFR’s pan-European survey found: 

• Russia is largely seen as an “adversary” and “rival” of Europe, fifteen months on from its illegal invasion of Ukraine. ECFR found that 64% of respondents think of Russia as Europe’s “adversary or “rival”.
  • The average share of respondents seeing Russia as a “rival” or “adversary” has increased from around one-third to almost two-thirds; 
  • In particular, majorities in Denmark (74%) Poland (71%), Sweden (70%), the Netherlands (66%), Germany (62%) and Spain (55%), think of Russia as an “adversary” of Europe – while only 37% in Italy and 17% in Bulgaria do.
     
• Views on how EU member states should engage with Russia, after the war, vary greatly. Around half of those surveyed (48%) believe their country’s relationship with Russia, in the event of a negotiated peace settlement in Ukraine, should be “limited”.
  • This is the plurality viewpoint everywhere – even in Poland, although the Polish public is the most divided on this point, with 39% willing to end all Poland’s relations with their neighbour. 
  • The only country where a majority (51%) of citizens expressed the view that it should be “fully cooperative” was Bulgaria. Many in Austria (36%), and Hungary (32%) also supported this view.
     
• In Bulgaria, Hungary, and Austria, a significant proportion of citizens see benefit in cooperating with Russia. 
  • A majority of respondents in Bulgaria (62%) and Hungary (59%), and a third of those in Austria, view Russia as an “ally” or “partner” of their country.
     
• There is a strong desire for Europe to scale-up its own defensive capabilities, and move away from dependency on US security guarantees. ECFR found that almost three-quarters (74%) of Europeans believe that Europe cannot always rely on the US for its security, and that it needs to look after its own defence – while only 8% say this is unnecessary because the US will always protect Europe.
   
• Europeans see merit in having relations with Russia’s chief international ally, China – a position that puts them at odds with some senior European figures, such as Ursula Von der Leyen. ECFR polling reveals that a plurality of respondents (43%) consider China a “necessary partner” of their country. This position puts them closer to the political positions of Germany’s Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron than China hawks, such as Ursula von der Leyen.
   
• However, there are concerns about Chinese economic activity and soft power moves in the EU-27. Many Europeans oppose the idea of Chinese ownership of key infrastructure, such as bridges or ports (65%), tech companies (52%) or newspapers (58%) in Europe.
   
• For 41% of Europeans, Chinese arms deliveries to Russia would be a red line and reason to impose sanctions on Beijing – even if that would harm Western economies.

The survey was conducted by Datapraxis and YouGov.