Exeter, 27 September, (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – The developing El Niño has become the strongest event in the observational record, according to the UK Met Office, as international forecasters warn that the climate pattern will continue strengthening towards the end of 2026. The latest El Niño record strength readings are raising concerns over extreme heat, drought, flooding and disruption to weather patterns worldwide.
Pacific temperatures surpass previous El Niño records
The Met Office said on 22 September that sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific had surpassed levels recorded during previous El Niño events. Scientists expect the phenomenon to continue building towards its seasonal peak later this year.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported on 10 September that El Niño was strengthening, with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 3°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The Niño-3.4 index reached 1.8°C in August, while the Niño-1+2 region reached 3.4°C.
A NOAA update issued on 22 September said the latest weekly Relative Oceanic Niño Index had exceeded 2°C, putting the event in the “very strong” category.
NOAA forecasts very strong El Niño through winter
NOAA says there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.
Its September assessment also gives a 75% probability that the October-to-December period will produce a historic event exceeding previous El Niño events in NOAA’s record dating to 1950, based on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index.
The El Niño record strength does not mean every region will experience extreme weather. NOAA stresses that stronger events increase the likelihood of typical El Niño impacts but do not guarantee particular conditions in individual locations.
WMO warns of growing global weather risks
The World Meteorological Organization said its forecasts show a nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. Exceptionally warm waters beneath the tropical Pacific are providing additional energy capable of sustaining the event.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned on 3 September:
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response.”
She said the event could affect agriculture, fisheries, health, energy, transport, water resources and disaster management as its impacts spread through economies and communities.
El Niño raises concerns over heat and rainfall
El Niño develops when unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific interact with the atmosphere, altering large-scale circulation and shifting temperature and rainfall patterns across different parts of the world.
Speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York on 23 September, Saulo issued another warning as governments prepare for the event’s health consequences:
“This El Niño is a test. We have the science. We have advance warning. And we still have time to act.”
WMO said countries should prepare for increased risks from extreme heat, flooding and drought.
El Niño expected to strengthen through late 2026
The El Niño record strength will remain closely monitored as the phenomenon approaches its expected peak towards the end of 2026.
NOAA’s September forecast shows a 100% probability of El Niño conditions through the December-January-February period. Its next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for 8 October, when forecasters will update observations and projections for the developing event.
