Print Magazine
Brussels Morning Newspaper
Saturday, September 23, 2023
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
    • About Us
  • EU institutions
    • Commission
    • Parliament
    • Council
  • Europe
  • World
  • Economy
  • Culture and Society
  • In Depth
    • Ambassador’s Corner
    • The American Angle
    • Sustainable Perspective
    • Europe With Transparency
    • Place de la Bourse
    • The Macro-Economist
    • Southeast Europe
Brussels Morning Newspaper
  • Home
    • About Us
  • EU institutions
    • Commission
    • Parliament
    • Council
  • Europe
  • World
  • Economy
  • Culture and Society
  • In Depth
    • Ambassador’s Corner
    • The American Angle
    • Sustainable Perspective
    • Europe With Transparency
    • Place de la Bourse
    • The Macro-Economist
    • Southeast Europe
Brussels Morning Newspaper
No Result
View All Result
Home Features

This Year’s US Election Is More Normal Than It Looks

Lincoln Mitchell by Lincoln Mitchell
10 September 2020
in Features, US Elections
This Year’s US Election Is More Normal Than It Looks
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

”Because of this it is even more striking how, in so many regards, this election is similar to most recent presidential elections.” 

Despite the rapid, bizarre and occasionally frightening changes in American politics, culture and society, little seems to be able to change how American voters think about their vote choice. A pandemic has killed more than 180,000 Americans. Unemployment approaches ten percent. Protests, demonstrations and political violence are occurring on the streets of many American cities, but the basic framework of the election, the coalitions and the political challenges remain unchanged.

There is a strange paradox at the heart of the 2020 presidential election. The 2020 presidential election is, on the one hand, unlike any other in American history. No presidential election has ever been held in the midst of a pandemic that creates significant problems for voting because many people are reluctant to leave their homes or come in close contact with anybody else.

The economic downturn, demonstrations associated with the reinvigorated Black Lives Matter movement and increased political violence, while not quite as unprecedented, have never all occurred at the same time during an election. More significantly, there has never been an election when the incumbent president has made it clear that he might not accept the outcome if he loses. Efforts by the American government to limit reporting about Russian and other foreign intervention also makes this election sui generis in American history.

Because of this it is even more striking how, in so many regards, this election is similar to most recent presidential elections. For example, after the Democratic conventions, pundits and observers speculated whether the Democrats could thread the needle of mobilizing their progressive base while not alienating more centrist voters, while after the Republican convention many of those same pundits and observers speculated about whether the people of color who spoke at the convention would make it more difficult to portray the party as racist.

These same questions could have been asked following the party conventions in every presidential election for at least the last forty years. 

Clouded analysis

Over the course of these nearly two generations much has changed in America and the world, but the basic party coalitions have not. The coalition Biden is seeking to put together to beat Donald Trump, particularly with regards to race, is not that different than the one Walter Mondale sought to create to beat Ronald Reagan in 1984 or that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both assembled when they successfully ran for president.

Then, and now, Democrats need to win the African American vote by a very big margin, of at least five to one, win Latinx voters by a somewhat smaller margin, and be competitive among white voters. A recent YouGov/Yahoo poll shows Biden winning African Americans by 64 points, Latinos by 20 points, but losing white voters by ten points. That is same basic racial breakdown can be found in the exit polls of every American presidential election in the last forty years. 

The inability to recognize what has not changed in American politics, contributes to shoddy and poorly focused analysis. We saw this during the early months of the Trump administration when an enormous amount of attention was paid to the question of why working class whites, particularly in rural areas, voted for Trump.

Books like J.D. Vance’s Hillbilly Elegy became required readers for liberal elites. The political behavior and culture of lower income white Americans is important and, for some, fascinating, but their support for the Republican Party is not new. The last Democrat to win a majority of these voters was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Trump’s white working class supporters were known in the 1980s as Reagan Democrats and in the decade before that as Richard Nixon’s silent majority. In 2016 Donald Trump did better with working class whites then Mitt Romney did in 2012, but that was a difference of degree, not of kind, because those voters have been the base of the GOP since at least the Reagan years.

Basic coalitions unchanged

Thus, a central dynamic of this election is that despite the rapid, bizarre and occasionally frightening changes in American politics, culture and society, little seems to be able to change how American voters think about their vote choice. A pandemic has killed more than 180,000 Americans. Unemployment, while not as bad as in the spring is nonetheless approaching ten percent.

Protests, demonstrations and political violence are occurring on the streets of many American cities, but the basic framework of the election, the coalitions and the political challenges remain unchanged over the decades. 
This is a reflection of how deeply partisan feelings run, but also of how partisanship in today’s America is so intertwined with racial, and other identities.

There is an enormous irony that one of the most significant impacts of the revolutions in political, and other, communication, the emergence of populist semi-authoritarian leader, foreign intervention, pandemic and recession over the last years has led to an election that with regards to coalitions, themes and strategy looks very similar to most other recent campaigns, but that seems to be what has happened.

Tags: American politicsBlack Lives Mattercoronavirus pandemic
Follow Brussels Morning
Facebook Twitter Youtube Linkedin

About Us

Brussels Morning is a daily online newspaper based in Belgium. BM publishes unique and independent coverage on international and European affairs. With a Europe-wide perspective, BM covers policies and politics of the EU, significant Member State developments, and looks at the international agenda with a European perspective.

More Info

  • About Us
  • Advertising
  • Cookie Policy
  • Contact Us
  • FAQ
  • Jobs

Categories

  • Belgium News
  • Brussels
  • Culture and Society
  • Economy
  • EU Institutions
  • Commission
  • Council
  • Parliament
  • Europe
  • Features
  • Health & Fitness
  • In Depth
  • Ambassador’s Corner
  • Europe With Transparency
  • Place de la Bourse
  • Southeast Europe
  • Sustainable Perspective
  • The American Angle
  • The Macro-Economist
  • Member States
  • Opinion
  • Our pick
  • Uncategorised
  • World
  • Diplomacy
  • Middle East Eye
  • US Elections
  • Join Our Newsletter

    Brussels Morning Newspaper – All Rights Reserved © 2020

    No Result
    View All Result
    • Home
    • About Us
    • Brussels Bubble
      • Parliament
      • Commission
      • Council
    • Wider Europe
      • Member States
    • World
    • Business & Society
    • Europe With Transparency
    • Culture & Society
    • Policy Talks
      • Place de la Bourse
      • The Macro-Economist
      • Sustainable Perspective
      • Ambassador’s Corner
      • The American Angle
      • Southeast Europe
    • Print Magazine

    Brussels Morning Newspaper - All Rights Reserved © 2020

    We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
    Cookie settingsACCEPT
    Privacy & Cookies Policy

    Privacy Overview

    This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
    Necessary
    Always Enabled
    Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
    Non-necessary
    Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
    SAVE & ACCEPT