Print Magazine
Brussels Morning Newspaper
Thursday, February 9, 2023
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
    • About Us
  • EU institutions
    • Commission
    • Parliament
    • Council
  • Europe
  • World
  • Economy
  • Culture and Society
  • In Depth
    • Ambassador’s Corner
    • The American Angle
    • Sustainable Perspective
    • Europe With Transparency
    • Place de la Bourse
    • The Macro-Economist
    • Southeast Europe
Brussels Morning Newspaper
  • Home
    • About Us
  • EU institutions
    • Commission
    • Parliament
    • Council
  • Europe
  • World
  • Economy
  • Culture and Society
  • In Depth
    • Ambassador’s Corner
    • The American Angle
    • Sustainable Perspective
    • Europe With Transparency
    • Place de la Bourse
    • The Macro-Economist
    • Southeast Europe
Brussels Morning Newspaper
No Result
View All Result
Home In Depth The American Angle

Republican myopia — nearsightedness on Trump’s impeachment will hurt party members

Lincoln Mitchell by Lincoln Mitchell
17 February 2021
in The American Angle
Republican myopia — nearsightedness on Trump’s impeachment will hurt party members
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Republicans choosing to acquit Donald Trump will find their decision may come back to bite them, writes Lincoln Mitchell.

New York (Brussels Morning) Faced with overwhelming evidence that Donald Trump incited, encouraged and seemingly enjoyed the violent insurrection at the Capitol on 6 January, 43 of the 50 Republican senators voted to acquit the former president, making it clear that they did not think what Trump did was worthy of impeachment.

There are only two reasons why those 43 senators voted to acquit Trump; either they were afraid of a primary from a Trump-backed opponent or they are true believers in what can perhaps best be described as the cult of Trump. In some respects, this is a distinction without a difference, but while those who genuinely support Trump did, in fact, vote their conscience, those who were making political calculations, may have made a mistake.

How the numbers stack up

Of the 43 senators who voted to acquit, only 13 are up for reelection in 2022. Some who voted to convict do not have to go before the voters until 2024 or 2026, while others have already announced they are not seeking reelection. Of those 13 who have to run in 2022, 12 are in safe Republican states so are wise to be more concerned about potential primary challenges than the general election in 2022.

One more of these senators, Marco Rubio, is in a state that leans Republican, but which could be competitive in a general election. However, because Florida is now the home state of the Trump clan, he is in danger of a primary challenge as well, perhaps from a member of the Trump family.

The first thing this should tell us is that while 13 senators may have made a political calculation, 30 Republican senators voted to acquit Donald Trump despite no short-term political threat. They might have confronted censure from their state Republican party and attacks in the right wing media, but no immediate political consequences. Therefore, we can only interpret those acquittal votes as, at least in substantial part, reflecting the actual values and beliefs of the senators in question. The other 13 may have been making a strategic vote, but we cannot know that for sure.

What the call for investigations tell us

The problem with the political calculation is that it will not age well. In the days since the acquittal, some Republicans have called for more investigations into what happened on 6 January and the role that Trump played in those events. It is apparent that any investigations will only make Trump’s role appear worse than it already looks. Meanwhile the Trump base, and Trump himself, may still be strong enough in 2022 to influence primaries, but with each passing year both may well become weaker and less relevant.

Americans frequently have short memories when it comes to politics, so it is possible that by 2026 or 2028 voters will have forgotten about the siege of the Capitol and not hold the acquittal vote against anybody, but there is another precedent that should not be overlooked.

There have been a handful of examples of political parties making missteps that have hurt them for a very long time. For example, the Democratic Party was not relevant in most of the north for two generations after the Civil War. Similarly, Herbert Hoover’s mishandling of the depression helped lock the Republicans out of national power for 20 years. 

Seeking reelection

Senators like Rubio, John Thune of South Dakota or even Ted Cruz of Texas have reelection campaigns and possibly bids for higher office in their future beyond 2022. Their acquittal vote may look very different when those races roll around. Perhaps not right away, but by 2028 having voted for this acquittal could be a mark against any candidate in all but the most solidly conservative states. This is why we should be skeptical about the current reports that the Republicans want to have further investigations into 6 January.

The acquittal vote can only be understood as part of a broader Republican attempt to minimise the events of 6 January. This endeavor began almost immediately after those events as the overwhelming majority of house Republicans voted not to impeach and then Mitch McConnell, in the waning days of his tenure as senate majority leader, decided not to call the senate back for a trial while Trump was still in office. Further investigations would undermine those efforts to minimise the insurrection.

That is why the Republican calls for this are so puzzling. One possible explanation is that while the presentations by the house impeachment managers were not enough to persuade 17 Republican senators to convict, they were powerful enough to show that this story is not going away.

Those Republican senators who voted to acquit, despite efforts to parse their decision and have it both ways, need this story to go away. Further investigation will, at the very least, make their acquittal vote look even worse, but could also reveal a degree of complicity from the Republican Party that could do great damage to their electoral standing for years.

Tags: Main-SliderRepublicanRepublican Party
Facebook Twitter Youtube LinkedIn

About Us

Brussels Morning is a daily online newspaper based in Belgium. BM publishes unique and independent coverage on international and European affairs. With a Europe-wide perspective, BM covers policies and politics of the EU, significant Member State developments, and looks at the international agenda with a European perspective.

Category

  • Ambassador’s Corner
  • Belgium News
  • Brussels
  • Commission
  • Council
  • Culture and Society
  • Diplomacy
  • Economy
  • EU Institutions
  • Europe
  • Europe With Transparency
  • Features
  • Health & Fitness
  • In Depth
  • Member States
  • Middle East Eye
  • Opinion
  • Our pick
  • Parliament
  • Place de la Bourse
  • Southeast Europe
  • Sustainable Perspective
  • The American Angle
  • The Macro-Economist
  • Uncategorised
  • US Elections
  • World

More info

  • About Us
  • Advertising
  • Cookies Policy
  • Contact Us
  • FAQ
  • Jobs

Brussels Morning Newspaper - All Rights Reserved © 2020

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Brussels Bubble
    • Parliament
    • Commission
    • Council
  • Wider Europe
    • Member States
  • World
  • Business & Society
  • Europe With Transparency
  • Culture & Society
  • Policy Talks
    • Place de la Bourse
    • The Macro-Economist
    • Sustainable Perspective
    • Ambassador’s Corner
    • The American Angle
    • Southeast Europe
  • Print Magazine

Brussels Morning Newspaper - All Rights Reserved © 2020

We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
Cookie settingsACCEPT
Privacy & Cookies Policy

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Non-necessary
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
SAVE & ACCEPT