The U.S. military’s mobilisation of the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Caribbean leaves many wondering what the Trump administration’s end goal is in the region. Official strike groups within the carrier state that they have been tasked with dismantling terrorist organisations and stopping narco trafficking with the purpose of protecting the U.S. However, the vague mission gives no indication as to how far the Department of Defense is willing to go to achieve that goal.
Since the 1st of September, there have been a continuous series of strikes against alleged drug traffickers in the eastern Pacific. So far, the U.S. has carried out at least 21 strikes that we know of, killing 83 people.
Breach of International Law
One specific case on the 2nd of September saw the U.S. Navy vice admiral Frank Bradley ordered a second strike on a boat that killed two survivors of an initial strike. The Washington Post has claimed that this was done under the verbal command of Secretary of the Department of Defense, Pete Hegseth, who said to “kill everybody.” Hegseth has gone on X (formerly known as Twitter) to deny these claims, stating,
“As usual, the fake news is delivering more fabricated, inflammatory, and derogatory reporting to discredit our incredible warriors fighting to protect the homeland.”
An order to kill the occupants of the vessel who no longer posed a threat, recognised as a “double-tap” strike, would constitute a war crime.
President Trump has stated that he believes Hegseth’s remarks that he did not order the attack, and that he would not have wanted a second strike on the boat. Karoline Leavitt, the White House’s Press Secretary, officially stated on Monday that Admiral Bradley ordered the strike ”well within his authority and the law.”
Pressure on Maduro
The justification for the sailing of the largest aircraft carrier in the world has been to end the movement of drugs from Venezuela into the U.S., however, experts have called this into question. Many speculate that the military campaign is meant to push Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, out of power.
The undergoing operations in the Caribbean have been designated as a “non-international armed conflict” against “designated terrorist organisations.” The USS Gerald R. Ford is being utilised under the presumption that Tren de Aragua and the alleged Cartel de los Soles, which Washington claims Maduro is the leader of, are an existential threat to U.S. security. While legal loopholes may frame it in a different manner, U.S. special operations using massive carriers and airstrikes to pressure Maduro to resign is gunboat diplomacy.
Sources told the Miami Herald, that Trump explicitly offered Maduro an ultimatum,
“You can save yourself and those closest to you, but you must leave the country now.”
The U.S. leader was reportedly offering safe passage for Maduro, his wife, and his son, solely on the condition that he resigned immediately. Maduro currently has the largest bounty ever for a sitting head of state, with the US government raising a $50 million reward for anyone who provides information that could lead to his arrest or conviction.
Within the Trump administration, the three main aides advocating for the ousting of Maduro are the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, the CIA Director, John Ratcliffe, and the homeland security advisor, Stephen Miller. The Biden administration has not recognised Maduro’s reelection last year, finding his presidency illegitimate.
Who will take Maduro’s Place?
Although the U.S. recognised Edmundo González Urrutia as the legitimate winner of the 2024 Venezuelan election, the likely candidate that the Trump administration would place in power, in the case of Maduro’s resignation, is another leader of the Venezuelan opposition, María Corina Machado.
With major support from the West, Machado was this year’s recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, and received the 2024 Sakharov Prize alongside Venezuela’s president-elect González Urrutia.
Machado intends to open Venezuela for foreign investment, and sell off approximately $1.7 trillion of the country’s oil, gas, and gold infrastructure. She has also been vocal in her support of Israel and has high praise for Argentine President Javier Milei.
Public opinion
American citizens are generally dissatisfied with the notion of escalation. Recent polls from Marquette University asked American citizens whether the U.S. should intervene in Venezuela, 76% answered that the U.S. should not get involved in the country, while 24% supported the idea of the U.S. attempting the removal of Maduro from power.
The European perspective is also unhappy with the current approach. At the G7 summit in Canada, French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot stated,
“We have observed with concern the military operations in the Caribbean region, because they violate international law and because France has a presence in this region through its overseas territories, where more than a million of our compatriots reside.”
Rubio stated that Europe should be grateful for the strikes, taking into account how much European drugs come from the South American region. In response to the allegations of breaking international law, he said,
“I don’t think that the European Union gets to determine what international law is, they certainly don’t get to determine how the United States defends its national security.”
Venezuela as a drug source
Despite the Trump administration’s rhetoric, which leads one to believe that Venezuela is the main source or a leading trafficker of drugs, data from the Drug Enforcement Administration proves otherwise.
Mexico was designated as the main manufacturing hub for opioids, with the Sinaloa Cartel and Cartél de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) as the traffickers bringing the drugs across the border. Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum has gone on the record to say that there is no connection between Venezuela and the Sinaloa Cartel, stating that they have no evidence to support that claim.
The leading transit hub for cocaine is Colombia, as the main cultivator of the drug around the globe. While Venezuela does traffic a good amount of cocaine, most of it goes to Europe, not the United States.
In March 2020 the DEA found that an estimated 13% of the global production of cocaine comes from Venezuela, with 200 to 250 tonnes of cocaine being trafficked through the country.
Groundwork for Invasion
As tensions rise between Venezuela and the U.S., Trump has announced the closure of Venezuela’s airspace, posting the following on Truth Social this past Saturday,
“To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY”
Solidifying worries about further escalation, potentially indicating the preparation of landstrikes. Maduro has publicly voiced his aversion to a U.S. invasion on Venezuelan soil, stating,
“No more forever wars. No more unjust wars. No more Libya. No more Afghanistan. Long live peace.”
However, Maduro has not wavered by Trump’s threats, rather mobilising military units across the country, preparing for conflict.
Trump held a meeting with his top advisors and national security team on Monday, to discuss the situation. No details on the meeting have been released yet.
