Our Magazine
Brussels Morning Online Newspaper
Thursday, February 25, 2021
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
    • About Us
  • EU institutions
    • Commission
    • Parliament
    • Council
  • Europe
  • World
  • Economy
  • Culture and Society
  • In Depth
    • Ambassador’s Corner
    • The American Angle
    • Europe With Transparency
    • Sustainable Perspective
    • Place de la Bourse
    • The Macro-Economist
    • Southeast Europe
Brussels Morning Online Newspaper
  • Home
    • About Us
  • EU institutions
    • Commission
    • Parliament
    • Council
  • Europe
  • World
  • Economy
  • Culture and Society
  • In Depth
    • Ambassador’s Corner
    • The American Angle
    • Europe With Transparency
    • Sustainable Perspective
    • Place de la Bourse
    • The Macro-Economist
    • Southeast Europe
Brussels Morning Online Newspaper
No Result
View All Result
Home Our pick

Biden won’t change Israel’s position on Iran

Angelos Kaskanis by Angelos Kaskanis
22 January 2021 - Updated on 23 January 2021
in Our pick
Biden won’t change Israel’s position on Iran
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Athens (Brussels Morning) Iran’s nuclear capability has always been a red line for Israel. 

It is no accident that Wednesday commenced with the Israeli Minister of intelligence warning the Biden Administration that any deal signed with Iran will “not be worth the paper its signed on”.

Clearly, Israel expects a change in US policy. Tehran expects a change in US policy. But neither Washington nor Tehran count on Israel changing its position. 

The Israeli red line

Despite years of sanctions, Iran has managed to build a robust military capability that stretches from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea. Although Israel has by far the most advanced military force in the region, its ability to hold the perceived Iranian threat in check — economically and militarily — has largely leaned on the support of Israel’s allies, particularly the US but also Gulf states. 

For more than five years, Israel has fought tooth and nail against the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015. It should be recalled that the race to secure the Republican nomination in 2016 was influenced by the campaigning former Senator Joe Lieberman, who used the United Against Nuclear Iran platform to pour millions into a campaign that would make the issue of withdrawing from the JCPOA a “make or break” issue for any Republican nominee. Furthermore, one Democratic Senator and 11 in the House of Representatives joined the campaign to derail the agreement. 

In the Trump administration Israel found a fervent supporter of the “maximum pressure” theorem, which dictates that the Iranian regime must be made to implode by denying it economic resources. 

After the failure of JCPOA to alleviate economic pressure, the credibility of those advocating for international engagement in Tehran has been undermined. At the same time, Tehran has historically been Israel’s archrival, at least on an ideological level. 

Should the new US administration seek a “quick win” in boosting Washington’s international profile, particularly in Europe, Iran might not fit the bill as Israel is likely to resist.

Israel’s strategy will not be affected by US or Israeli elections

Brussels Morning spoke to an Israeli and Iranian security expert to understand the realities on the ground. For different reasons, both agree what lies ahead is low-intensity skirmishes rather than a major confrontation. 

Maysam Behravesh, a Research Associate with Clingendael’s Conflict Research Unit (CRU)

Maysam Behravesh, a Research Associate with Clingendael’s Conflict Research Unit (CRU) in the Hague has said that Israel’s forthcoming elections are not likely to change the political landscape. Even if a part of the Israeli opposition is more sympathetic to the Biden administration’s potential pursuit of diplomatic engagement with Tehran, the overall strategy and lobbying activity in Washington is unlikely to change. 

The same view is echoed in Israel. 

Iftah Burman from Bar Ilan University, Tel Aviv

Iftah Burman, a geopolitical analyst and researcher at Bar Ilan University, Tel Aviv, makes clear that the Israeli position on Iran is not likely to change in the near future, no matter what happens in the forthcoming Israeli elections. 

Furthermore, Berman notes, until the US has a clear position on Iran, Israel will attempt to shape the situation on the gound. 

“Netanyahu, or any most likely successors, are expected to continue Israeli attempts at taking Iran out of the nuclear equation. However, President Biden is expected to revisit the JCPOA and ask Israel to step-down its attacks on Iranian assets. Until then, the Israelis will be tempted to hit Iranian military facilities, such as the UAVs array in Yemen, before the window of opportunity closes.”

At the same time, both analysts agree that the continuing confrontation between Israel and Iran is not likely to escalate militarily.  

Iran’s strategic patience

According to Behravesh, Iran is likely to stick to its “strategic patience” policy line.  Netanyahu’s Israel has tried to deal Iran with as many military and security blows as possible, tiying the Biden administration’s hands as far as possible. But Tehran still hopes that Biden will allow US allies to reengage with JCPOA with significant economic benefits. “Iran is wary of giving hawks in the US, Israel and beyond any excuse to sabotage this possibility”, Behravesh notes.

Addressed with the question of whether Iran is ready to take more forceful action against Israel at this point in time,  the Iranian analyst notes that we would not rule out the possibility, as a response to an Israeli provocation, but not before Tehran manages to alleviate some of the economic burden of sanctions. “Iran cannot afford to open a new front of conflict now. It’s already spread itself too thin both at home and abroad”, Behravesh notes. 

Israel aims to contain not confront

Berman’s rationale is that traditional Iranian allies are not ready to act in Palestinian territories and Lebanon. 

Addressed with the question of whether he expects an escalation of conflict in places where there is proxy direct confrontation – Lebanon and the Gaza strip – he is reassuring.  “We expect to see more low intensity skirmishes, and nothing more”, he says. 

“Hizb’Allah cannot afford another boxing round with Israel in Lebanon”, Burman argues, as it is losing support among a broad strata of Lebanese public opinion. 

Nasrallah would prefer to wait until the Lebanese political and economic crisis stabilizes before taking on Israel again. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Iran’s agent in Gaza, took a serious hit during its last round with Israel, over a year ago.

Furthermore, Burman notes, as the campaign for a new leadership in Palestinian Authority is taking place, Hamas is likely to reign over PIJ in Gaza to safeguard its legitimacy. 

While active in confronting Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq, Israel refrains from escalation in areas where Iran is not the dominant stakeholder.

“Israel prefers to continue targeting IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] and their proxies in Syria and Iraq, while only reacting to Hizb’Allah or PIJ initiatives in Lebanon or Gaza”, says Burman. 

“The Israelis are carrying out aerial, kinetic, and cyber operations in Syria, Iraq, and allegedly even on-the-ground in Iran. However, when it comes to Hizb’Allah combatants on the Lebanese border, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) sticks to only flushing those out and away”, he says. 

“As per Gaza, Israel retaliates with subdued aerial attacks to the occasional rocket fire, while focusing their efforts on hostage negotiation with Hamas, with a prerequisite they deal with PIJ on their own. At this point, Israel prefers only a tactical response, rather than a strategic plan, when it comes to Hizb’Allah and PIJ”.

Tags: BidenIranIsraelMain-Slider
Angelos Kaskanis

Angelos Kaskanis

Angelos Kaskanis is the Brussels Morning Security Columnist. He holds a Ph.D. in Terrorism and Security Studies and has worked for several think tanks and NGOs. His research focuses on Religious Extremism, Radicalization, and Security.

Latest post

Europe must do more to fight child poverty and the ‘Child Guarantee’ is the solution

Europe must do more to fight child poverty and the ‘Child Guarantee’ is the solution

1 hour ago
Spain announces billion-euro package to aid pandemic-hit businesses

Spain announces billion-euro package to aid pandemic-hit businesses

13 hours ago

Most Read

  • Georgia committed and ready for NATO membership

    Georgia committed and ready for NATO membership

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • The EU will not learn to speak the language of power as long as Germany does not

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • For US Cybersecurity China is a bigger concern than Russia

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Consumption of plant-based alternatives is disconcerting to meat and dairy industries

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Biden Administration opens the door to international green energy know-how

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0

Subscribe
Facebook Twitter Youtube LinkedIn

About Us

Brussels Morning is a daily online newspaper based in Belgium. BM publishes unique and independent coverage on international and European affairs. With a Europe-wide perspective, BM covers policies and politics of the EU, significant Member State developments, and looks at the international agenda with a European perspective.

Category

  • Ambassador’s Corner
  • Commission
  • Council
  • Culture and Society
  • Diplomacy
  • Economy
  • EU Institutions
  • Europe
  • Europe With Transparency
  • Features
  • In Depth
  • Member States
  • Middle East Eye
  • Opinion
  • Our pick
  • Parliament
  • Place de la Bourse
  • Southeast Europe
  • Sustainable Perspective
  • The American Angle
  • The Macro-Economist
  • Uncategorised
  • US Elections
  • World

More info

  • About Us
  • Advertising
  • Cookies Policy
  • Contact Us
  • FAQ
  • Jobs

Brussels Morning Newspaper - All Rights Reserved © 2020

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • About Us
  • EU Institutions
    • Parliament
    • Commission
    • Council
  • Europe
  • World
  • Member States
  • Economy
  • Culture and Society
  • In Depth
    • Ambassador’s Corner
    • Europe With Transparency
    • Place de la Bourse
    • The Macro-Economist
    • Sustainable Perspective
    • The American Angle
    • Southeast Europe
  • Magazine

Brussels Morning Newspaper - All Rights Reserved © 2020

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
Cookie settingsACCEPT
Privacy & Cookies Policy

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled

Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.

Non-necessary

Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.

SAVE & ACCEPT